2008 Prediction Results
Alright, it is about time we check to see how well I did last year. I am only 3 months late in doing so. :)
1) The STO license will stay with Perpetual as long as they keep their heads above water money wise. New announcements about the game will be few (comparatively speaking) but what is released will be carefully chosen and will make a few say “hmmm…” (in a good way).
Well, we all know that this did not transpire. However, I did make it a safe bet by saying if PE stayed financially viable. As they did not, I could claim this one as a score. I think we all understand that that was not the jist of what I was predicting here though. As such, I can only give myself the following score.
2) WoW will continue to glide along on its seemingly endless trade winds. I think it is a foregone conclusion that the new expansion will miss the 2008 mark (but not by much). We may however see some small parts of it released as a live patch in order to pacify some.
WoW did and does continue to glide on but Blizzard did make the 2008 release. I can only take refuge in the fact that I was not the only one out there who said it would be missed.
3) AoC will not be what many have conceived it to be. It will be in the same boat as D&DO.
This became all to apparent. Nothing more to say here.
4) Cryptic Studios will rise up with some exciting news. I do not know what but it will be something to get the community talking about them in a good light.
Champions Online, Star Trek Online and rumors of yet another game all came to light last year. While not quite a shining star in the industry and their only momentum at this point is a game they sold off to their publisher, these announcements have kept them viable in the blog and podcast world. Will these games deliver past their first 6 to 8 months of “newness”? I guess we will find out.
5) EQ II will continue to be the sleeper it is now while its subscriber numbers continue to rise.
While I have no official numbers to claim success here, I have to mark it as a hit. EQ II continually puts out quality content, updates and is very much treated as SOE’s star product. There are no signs of this MMORPG slowing down anytime soon.
6) Warhammer will have a huge release (not much of a prediction there) but the community will be heavily commenting on it “failures” this time next year.
As with my AOC prediction above, it was somewhat sad to see this come true. Please keep in mind that the “this time next year” part of the prediction would have been the end of 2008.
) RMT will be announced to becoming to a true western market AAA game. I do not mean The Agency but something more liken to WoW or an EQ II. Whether it is a new game or a new server for an existing game is unknown.
Star Wars: The Old Republic unofficially “officially” announced a micro transaction plan. EQ II introduced the start of micro transactions with Station Cash. While not true RMT in the sence that players can make money off of ingame items. It is a big step for a traditional subscription based game.
We now know that my true prediction was only a few months off though. As all of the Vanguard servers will now part of the Live Gamer service.
8) Developers who are thinking about RMT services will start listening to the gaming community for new ideas that may be appealing ways to implement it instead of the normal “cash shops”.
For this, I was not really thinking of removing cash shops but adding things to them that are a bit more than fluff. Something like name change, server transfers that are always available, race change, complete character re-customization. Or, something like…”you don’t like your mythical weapon mounted on your back? Then buy this side mounted weapon that has all the same stats!”.
I also kind of misrepresented this prediction. As I meant it to be micro transaction related and not RMT. I do think there is a distinct difference.
9) Some bloggers will be hired by developers/publishers as a new marketing tool.
No available information to sustain this as being true.
10) Bioware will still keep the Austin project quiet and we will start to see more and more “who cares” posts. Time starts to run out this year for them to make an announcement.
Missed on this too but I will say that before SW: TOR was announced this past year, I did indeed start to see a few “do we still care?” comments around.
While I have only scored a pure 4 out of 10 here, a lot of the ones I missed on still had a lot of truth wrapped up in them. And/or were just months away from becoming true. To that extent, I think I did well.
Original posting of these predictions can be found here.