They say it will take 1-2 weeks for the tech test. Assume things take longer than expected like they always do so 2-3 weeks.
After that they start letting in some of the PS1 vets for closed beta. Stability issues start getting picked up and there is more delay. Another few weeks go by. Eventually in 1.5-2 months most of the PS1 vets are in, but the major issues with exploits and balancing need to get addressed and Jimmy Whisenhunt is still giving them changes to how all the weapons handle as well which further alters the balance of items.
At around the 3-3.5 month mark (early-mid November) they start letting in all the people with other beta keys (eg. I might get in with my Twitter key then). We get about 2-3 more weeks of closed beta and they decide to move to open beta. The characters get wiped, the cash shop opens, and anyone can get in to play. The NDA is lifted so reviews start coming out everywhere, and the advertising push kicks in. They run open beta for another month and release the game before Christmas.
In late November I get married and take off until mid January anyway, so at best I figure am looking at a few weeks of closed beta and missing the launch.
23 years of FPS experience. That doesnt make me feel old. P4wning kids that I know have been alive for less time than I have been gaming - that makes me feel old.